![]() His call seems to be the first on Wall Street that suggests the 10-year could approach the record low, near 1.35%, set in July. The 10-year topped out at 2.64% in the middle of March - two days before the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates - and has fallen more than 40 basis points.īut Minerd's betting it will fall a lot further as the economy proves itself to be weaker than everyone thinks. The disappointing data is being reflected in the bond market. All of that has caused the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool to predict gross domestic product will grow by a tepid 0.5% in the first quarter. First, the March jobs report disappointed, then retail sales whiffed, and core consumer prices posted their first drop since 2010. Yields have fallen sharply over the past month as key data hasn't lived up to the hype. Since then, however, the GOP's healthcare-reform plan has stalled, and that has caused traders to question Trump's ability to deliver on his proposals to cut taxes and roll back regulations. "If Brexit marked a 5,000-year low in global interest rates, Trump marked the moment investors started to position for a bond bear market," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients shortly after the election. ![]() That caused analysts on Wall Street to declare the end of the bull market in bonds. Treasury yields surged in the weeks after the election - the 10-year yield climbed about 80 basis points, to more than 2.60% - on the prospects that President Donald Trump's economic agenda would bring inflation back to the United States. In a tweet on Monday morning, Minerd said, "The next stop for 10-year Treasury yields is 2%, with the probability rising that we revisit 1.5% or lower this summer." Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners' global chief investment officer and head of Guggenheim Investments, the asset management arm of Guggenheim, just made a big call on the 10-year yield. ![]() Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. ![]()
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